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Working Paper 98-6
Tables

The Global Economic Effects of the Japanese Crisis

© Institute for International Economics.

 

Table 1: Change in Global Trade Balances (billions of dollars)
United
States		 Western
Europe		 Australia and
New Zealand		 Japan China Developing
Asia		 ROW
Scenario 1
Asian adjustment through June 1998,
except Japan		 -34.6 -50.4 8.2 -33.1 -11.0 151.8 -30.8
Scenario 2
10 percent Japanese depreciation plus
2 percent negative supply-side shock		 -58.0 -75.8 6.0 55.2 -15.8 129.5 -41.1
Scenario 3
20 percent Japanese depreciation plus
4 percent negative supply-side shock		 -79.5 -100.0 4.1 135.2 -19.9 110.1 -50.0
Scenario 4
30 percent Japanese devaluation plus
3 percent positive supply-side shock		 -96.4 -120.4 3.7 184.9 -21.0 99.7 -50.5

 

Table 2: Change in Key Bilateral Trade Balances (billions of dollars)
US-Japan US-China US-South Korea Japan-South Korea Japan-China
Scenario 1
Asian adjustment through June 1998,
except Japan		 -2.0 0.2 -10.0 -9.0 0.7
Scenario 2
10 percent Japanese depreciation plus
2 percent negative supply-side shock		 -25.0 -0.2 -10.3 -4.1 8.7
Scenario 3
20 percent Japanese depreciation plus
4 percent negative supply-side shock		 -46.3 -0.5 -10.8 0.0 15.9
Scenario 4
30 percent Japanese depreciation plus
3 percent positive supply-side shock		 -62.7 -0.8 -10.7 -2.0 19.8

 

Table 3 Japanese Change in Output from the Base (percentages)

  Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Agriculture -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 2.7
Processed Food 0.2 -1.3 -2.8 0.0
Forestry and Fishery -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 4.6
Mining -0.5 -2.0 -3.5 3.8
Energy -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 6.8
Textile and Apparel -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 5.4
Light Manufactures -0.3 -1.3 -2.1 6.2
Intermediate Goods -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 7.1
Motor Vehicles and Parts -1.6 5.2 12.4 28.2
Other Transportation
Equipment		 -1.6 5.6 13.9 31.3
Electronics -0.3 0.2 0.7 9.3
Machinery -2.1 1.6 5.3 15.7
Housing and Construction 0.9 -3.7 -8.3 -3.5
Services 0.4 -2.8 -6.1 0.3

 

Table 4 Japanese Change in Trade Balance from the Base (US$ billions)
  Scenario
1		 Scenario
2		 Scenario
3		 Scenario
4
Agriculture 0.0 1.1 2.2 2.8
Processed Food 0.1 2.0 3.7 4.7
Forestry and Fishery 0.5 1.6 2.6 3.0
Mining -0.7 1.5 3.4 4.0
Energy -0.1 5.7 10.5 11.3
Textile and Apparel -0.7 2.8 5.9 7.8
Light Manufactures -1.5 4.4 9.8 12.5
Intermediate Goods -5.8 3.8 12.2 16.2
Motor Vehicles and Parts -5.1 10.9 26.3 42.0
Other Transportation Equipment -1.0 2.7 6.3 9.9
Electronics -2.3 5.3 12.2 17.2
Machinery -13.7 5.1 21.9 34.9
Housing and Construction 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5
Services -2.4 10.7 22.7 1.1

 

Table 5: US Change in Output from the Base (percentages)
  Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario
4
Agriculture -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8
Processed Food -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Forestry and Fishery -1.4 -1.8 -2.1 -2.1
Mining -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
Energy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Textile and Apparel -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
Light Manufactures -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3
Intermediate Goods -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9
Motor Vehicles and Parts 0.2 -2.4 -4.9 -7.8
Other Transportation Equipment -0.9 -1.4 -2.0 -2.6
Electronics -1.7 -3.3 -4.8 -6.2
Machinery -1.6 -3.8 -5.9 -7.9
Housing and Construction 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7
Services 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1

 

Table 6: US Change in Trade Balance from the Base (US$ billions)
  Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario
4
Agriculture -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0
Processed Food -1.4 -1.8 -2.1 -2.3
Forestry and Fishery -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
Mining -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9
Energy -1.0 -1.6 -2.1 -2.5
Textile and Apparel -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7
Light Manufactures -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.6
Intermediate Goods -3.9 -6.1 -8.0 -9.0
Motor Vehicles and Parts -1.7 -8.4 -14.8 -21.5
Other Transportation Equipment -2.5 -4.2 -5.8 -7.4
Electronics -3.6 -6.3 -8.7 -10.7
Machinery -7.6 -14.1 -19.9 -24.8
Housing and Construction 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Services -8.1 9.4 -10.6 -10.3

 

Table 7: Change in US-Japan Trade Balance from the Base (US$ billions)
  Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Agriculture -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1
Processed Food -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4
Forestry and Fishery -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6
Mining -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6
Energy 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3
Textile and Apparel 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7
Light Manufactures -0.1 -1.3 -2.5 -3.4
Intermediate Goods -0.2 -2.2 -3.9 -4.8
Motor Vehicles and Parts -0.4 -7.6 -14.5 -21.7
Other Transportation Equipment 0.0 -1.2 -2.3 -3.2
Electronics 0.2 -2.6 -5.3 -7.5
Machinery 0.1 -5.9 -11.4 -15.7
Housing and Construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Services 0.8 -2.5 -3.9 -3.8

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