Currency Wars, the Economy of the United States, and Reform of the International Monetary System

In the twelfth annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture, C. Fred Bergsten argues that currency manipulation is the single biggest challenge facing the world economic system and costs millions of US jobs.

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Most recently posted material.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Routledge on North Korea
Stephan Haggard — May 25, 2013
Routledge is one of those commercially successful academic presses that academics love to hate. On the one hand, they publish a lot and some of it is tailored to those of us working in niche markets, like North Korea (we have published in several Routledge volumes). On the other hand, their pricing ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The IMF Revisits Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Not the SDRM
Anna Gelpern — May 24, 2013
A long-awaited overview paper [pdf] on sovereign debt restructuring from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is here, the first since 2005. And it does not revive the ...

Peterson Perspectives Interview Peterson Perspectives Interview: Are Tax Avoidance 'Havens' a Bad Thing? Part II
Nicolas Veron — May 24, 2013
Nicolas Véron says Europe has taken a step forward in requiring European banks to exchange information to crack down on tax evasion.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Self-Defeating Austerity and the Improved US Fiscal Outlook
Joseph E. Gagnon — May 24, 2013
Last week, Tyler Cowen of the blog Marginal Revolution asked "Have we seen self-defeating austerity in the United States?" Cowen decline ...

Peterson Perspectives Interview Are Tax Avoidance 'Havens' a Bad Thing? Part I
Nicolas Veron — May 24, 2013
Nicolas Véron explains why low-tax havens in Europe like Ireland and Luxembourg are a legitimate business model and will be hard to suppress. In Part II: A Step Forward on Disclosure

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Will the Pacific Alliance Succeed in Latin America After Other Trade Pacts Have Failed?
Barbara Kotschwar — May 23, 2013
Pacific Alliance fever has set in. This trade grouping—which joins together the economies of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru—is holding its seventh summit on Thursday in the western Colombian city of Cali with more and more attention being paid throughout the region. The alliance ha ...

China Economic Watch Buyer Beware: The Risk to Institutional Investors Financing China's Local Government Debt
Ryan Rutkowski — May 23, 2013
Owners of the debt of local government special purpose vehicles (SPVs) should choose wisely and be cautious. At least this is the message central government officials are communicating to China’s financial markets. Two weeks ago, Premier Li Keqiang identified “controlling the risks of local governme ...

Congressional Testimony European Union Economic Relations: Crisis and Opportunity [pdf]
Douglas A. Rediker — May 23, 2013
The euro crisis represents an opportunity to reform and restructure the European Union, and it is in the interest of the United States to remain invested and engaged in their success to ensure that Europe emerges stronger from its crisis.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The ECB Should Act to Avert the Risk of Deflation in the Euro Area
Angel Ubide — May 23, 2013
For years, observers of the European Central Bank (ECB) have been hearing the same line from its former President, Jean Claude Trichet: "We have one needle in our compass, and that is price stability." This precept should contribute to understanding the central bank's policy stance: When price st ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Political Prospects for Europe's Pro-EU Parties
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 22, 2013
Despite the repeated warnings of commentators too numerous to mention, Europeans have declined to elect ultra-nationalist, anti-establishment majorities in their parliaments and hasten a repeat of 1930s era fascism or communism. This does not mean that the continent is without political proble ...

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Currency Wars, the Economy of the United States, and Reform of the International Monetary System

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Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian propose four changes to trade rules needed to address climate change. Policy Brief 13-10. See also related op-ed: Four Changes to Trade Rules to Facilitate Climate Change Action

The latest court rulings in New York that try to make Argentina pay its debts cannot compel the country to pay. Instead, they threaten collateral damage to other countries and parts of the financial system, warns Anna Gelpern. Policy Brief 13-12.

David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald explore the hypothesis that high home-ownership damages the labor market. Working Paper 13-3. See also related op-ed: Be Warned George Osborne: More Home Owners Just Really Means Higher Unemployment

Theodore H. Moran outlines a multilateral nondiscriminatory approach to dealing with cybersecurity threats posed by globalized information technology suppliers. Policy Brief 13-11.

Miles Kahler writes that the rapid economic rise of China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could have several effects on regional peace and global security. Working Paper 13-4.

Although India's growth rates have been second only to China in recent years, on a convergence-adjusted basis, its performance has been worse than the simple numbers suggest, argues Arvind Subramanian.

The claim that there was a clear tipping point for the ratio of government debt to GDP past which an economy's walls caved in never made any sense, writes Adam S. Posen, in response to the recent reevaluation of the data underlying Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's 2010 paper on the subject. Arvind Subramanian argues that the incident exposes a flaw in the marketplace for ideas and research where superstars are involved. Listen to related interview.

Adam S. Posen testifies before the Joint Economic Committee hearing on "The Fed at 100: Can Monetary Policy Close the Growth Gap and Promote a Sound Dollar?" [pdf]

Ratifying seven pending WTO agreements could boost global exports by more than $2 trillion [pdf], say Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Cathleen Cimino, and Julia Muir in a new paper. Trade with emerging economies has been assigned a villainous role that far exceeds its impact, write Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards. See also Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?

The European Debt Crisis

Douglas A. Rediker testifies that while risks remain, Europe is currently significantly more stable and prepared for future events than could have been predicted three years ago.

Adam S. Posen participates in a high-level panel on the euro area that concluded the Spring International Monetary Fund meeting.

It is now clear that the International Monetary Fund’s advice to Southern European countries in 2008 and 2009 could hardly have been more flawed, writes Anders Åslund.

While some observers argue that the key lesson of the euro area’s baptism by fire is that greater fiscal and banking integration are needed to sustain the currency union, the real lessons of the euro crisis lie elsewhere, writes Arvind Subramanian.

Events

Whitman Lecture: The Euro Crisis Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Evaluation of the Troika Conditionality in Europe Release of Bruegel report
The Continuing Impact of the European Crisis Anders Borg, Finance Minister of Sweden
Russian Preparations for the Next G-20 Summit Russia's G-20 Sherpa Ksenia Yudaeva and Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak

RealTime Economics Issues Posts

The ECB Should Act to Avert the Risk of Deflation in the Euro Area by Angel Ubide
The Political Prospects for Europe's Pro-EU Parties by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings by Allie E. Bagnall
Is France a 'Peripheral' Country? by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Peterson Perspectives Interviews

Is Austerity Being Reconsidered in Europe?: with Angel Ubide

US corporate tax reform would make US multinational corporations stronger competitors in markets abroad and enable them to expand and invest more at home. Policy Brief 13-9 by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro.

The members of the World Trade Organization need to face up to the key trade policy questions of the day and embark on a substantive selection process when electing a new director-general, writes Robert B. Zoellick.

The golden age of global economic growth—in which a growing number of developing countries have caught up with the advanced economies—has mostly survived recent global economic crises, writes Arvind Subramanian.

Anders Åslund argues that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is departing from its traditional focus on financial stability and is instead helping opponents of fiscal reform.